Home/Crypto myths

Crypto myths, checked

The things everyone in crypto "knows", tested on Bitcoin's full daily history. Some hold up, some don't, and a surprising number simply can't be known yet: a month or a halving only happens once a year or once every four.

8 too few cases to tell2 supported by the data2 not supported by the data
“October is Bitcoin's best month (Uptober)”
Bitcoin reliably rallies in October.
Too few cases to tell
“Crypto has a Santa rally in December”
Bitcoin tends to rise into the end of the year.
Too few cases to tell
“Sell in May and go away”
Bitcoin does worse from May to October than from November to April.
Too few cases to tell
“Crypto is quieter on weekends”
Bitcoin moves less on Saturdays and Sundays.
Supported by the data
“Some days of the week are better for Bitcoin”
Mondays dump, Fridays pump, or any other weekday rule.
Not supported by the data
“A death cross means more downside”
When the 50-day average crosses below the 200-day, Bitcoin falls further.
Too few cases to tell
“A golden cross means the rally is on”
When the 50-day average crosses above the 200-day, Bitcoin keeps rising.
Too few cases to tell
“Buy when there's extreme fear”
Bitcoin does well after the Fear & Greed index drops below 20.
Too few cases to tell
“Buy the dip after a 10% crash day”
Bitcoin bounces after a 10% daily drop.
Too few cases to tell
“The halving makes Bitcoin pump”
Bitcoin rallies in the year after each halving.
Too few cases to tell
“Altcoins just follow Bitcoin”
When Bitcoin moves, the rest of the market moves with it.
Supported by the data
“The full moon moves Bitcoin”
Bitcoin tops near full moons and bottoms near new moons.
Not supported by the data