When the 50-day average crosses above the 200-day, Bitcoin keeps rising.
This has happened 9 times on Bitcoin since 2017-08-17. 30 days later it was higher 67% of the time (n=9), against 55% after any day; median +4.2% vs +1.8%. That is within what luck produces.
| Date | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | -3.6% | +4.2% |
| 2025-05-22 | -5.5% | -8.6% |
| 2024-10-28 | -3.0% | +37.0% |
| 2023-10-30 | +1.7% | +9.8% |
| 2023-02-07 | -4.5% | -12.4% |
| 2021-09-15 | -9.5% | +28.2% |
| 2020-05-21 | +5.6% | +3.2% |
| 2020-02-18 | -8.3% | -39.4% |
| 2019-04-24 | -0.6% | +47.1% |
How this was checked. Every occurrence on Bitcoin's daily chart, measured from that day's close, non-overlapping per horizon, against all days (z beyond ±2.5 to count).
Run the same question on any coin in the Event Explorer.
Recomputed nightly from Binance daily closes. History describes the past; it is not a forecast or advice.