Where Bitcoin's trend stands, how many coins are joining in, whether stablecoin liquidity is growing, how crowded derivatives are, and what options are pricing, each with what usually followed. Context for your own decisions, updated every hour.
Our research's one robust result. Across 4 start years the filter had a smaller worst drawdown 4 times and a higher return 3 times. Its job is limiting the damage, not beating the market.
| Start | Buy & hold: return | worst drop | Trend filter: return | worst drop | In market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | +516% | -81.2% | +1590% | -59.8% | 52.6% |
| 2020 | +1044% | -76.6% | +1206% | -38.5% | 57.7% |
| 2022 | +73% | -66.7% | +174% | -36.1% | 50.3% |
| 2024 | +87% | -53% | +81% | -36.1% | 56.6% |
Hold BTC only while it closed above its 100-day average, cash otherwise, decided at each daily close, 0.1% cost per switch. Hypothetical, from history; it lags at turning points and pays for false switches.
Top 1 coins by market cap that have 200+ days of history.
Total stablecoin supply. Source: DefiLlama, as of 2026-10-16. Context only: its lead on prices isn't established.
Perpetual funding: positive means longs pay shorts. Percentile against the last 12 months of 8-hour rates. Source: Binance USDT perpetuals.
Fear & Greed index from alternative.me. "After similar readings" uses every past day in the same band (55–75).
From Deribit's DVOL implied-volatility index: a one-standard-deviation band (about two-thirds of outcomes, if prices moved the way options assume). Options pricing is risk-neutral, not a forecast.
Want this on every page while you analyse? It's free in the CryptoPatterns dashboard. How the numbers are built: methodology.