When the 50-day average crosses below the 200-day, Bitcoin falls further.
This has happened 9 times on Bitcoin since 2017-08-17. 30 days later it was higher 44% of the time (n=9), against 55% after any day; median -2.3% vs +1.8%. That is within what luck produces.
| Date | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | -7.9% | -6.8% |
| 2025-04-07 | +6.9% | +22.6% |
| 2024-08-10 | -2.4% | -6.4% |
| 2023-09-12 | +5.3% | +3.6% |
| 2022-01-14 | -15.4% | -2.3% |
| 2021-06-19 | -9.0% | -13.1% |
| 2020-03-25 | -0.5% | +12.4% |
| 2019-10-26 | +0.6% | -23.0% |
| 2018-03-31 | -0.4% | +33.5% |
How this was checked. Every occurrence on Bitcoin's daily chart, measured from that day's close, non-overlapping per horizon, against all days (z beyond ±2.5 to count).
Run the same question on any coin in the Event Explorer.
Recomputed nightly from Binance daily closes. History describes the past; it is not a forecast or advice.