Bitcoin rallies in the year after each halving.
Bitcoin has had four halvings, and our price data covers 2 of them. Rallies did follow, but each also coincided with other forces (money printing in 2020, ETF inflows in 2024), and a handful of cases can't separate the halving from everything else. Treat any confident halving model with suspicion.
| Halving | 6 months later | 12 months later | 18 months later |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-07-09 | no data | no data | no data |
| 2020-05-11 | +79% | +562% | +658% |
| 2024-04-20 | +6% | +31% | +70% |
How this was checked. Bitcoin's close on the halving day against its close 6, 12 and 18 months later (Binance data begins August 2017).
Recomputed nightly from Binance daily closes. History describes the past; it is not a forecast or advice.