Bitcoin does worse from May to October than from November to April.
Over 8 complete cycles, November to April beat May to October 5 times. Median May to October: +16%; median November to April: +14%. A coin flip would favour one side this often or more 36% of the time, and one Bitcoin cycle can dominate a whole half-year, so 8 years can't settle it.
| Starting May | May to Oct | Nov to Apr |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +16% | -30% |
| 2024 | +16% | +34% |
| 2023 | +18% | +75% |
| 2022 | -46% | +43% |
| 2021 | +6% | -39% |
| 2020 | +60% | +318% |
| 2019 | +72% | -6% |
| 2018 | -31% | -16% |
How this was checked. Compounded month-end returns of Bitcoin for May-October and the following November-April.
Recomputed nightly from Binance daily closes. History describes the past; it is not a forecast or advice.