Home/Methodology
Methodology

How we calculate pattern win-rates

We’d rather over-explain than overstate. Here is exactly how the numbers across CryptoPatterns.ai are produced — and where their limits are.

How pattern win-rates are computed

Each chart pattern carries a historical follow-through rate. To produce it, the engine scans real historical candles for the most liquid pairs across 20+ exchanges and detects every occurrence of the pattern. For each occurrence it then checks what price did over several horizons — 1 hour, 4 hours, 24 hours and 7 days — and counts it as a follow-through if price moved in the pattern’s predicted direction by a meaningful threshold within that horizon (a larger threshold for longer horizons). The win-rate is simply the share of occurrences that followed through, and it is always shown alongside the sample size it is based on.

This is deliberately a follow-through measurement, not a full trade simulation. It does not assume a specific entry fill, stop or target, and it does not deduct trading fees or slippage. That makes it a clean, comparable measure of how a pattern has historically behaved — but it is not the same as the live, fee-and-stop reality of an actual trade. Patterns with small sample sizes are noisier; we flag low-sample patterns rather than presenting their numbers with false confidence.

Limitations & honest caveats

  • Historical and backtested performance does not guarantee future results.
  • Pattern follow-through rates exclude fees, slippage and a specific stop, so live results will differ.
  • Small samples are noisy; we show sample sizes and gate low-confidence numbers.
  • Crypto trading — especially leveraged futures — carries substantial risk of loss.
  • CryptoPatterns.ai is software and analytics, not financial advice.

Browse historical pattern follow-through rates in the pattern library.

FAQ

Methodology questions

What does a pattern “win-rate” mean on CryptoPatterns.ai?

It is a historical follow-through rate: across thousands of past occurrences of that pattern, the share where price moved in the pattern’s predicted direction by a meaningful threshold within a set window (1h, 4h, 24h or 7d). It is computed from real historical candles and shown with its sample size. It is not a full trade simulation and does not include fees, slippage or a specific stop, so treat it as evidence of historical tendency, not a guarantee.

Do your pattern win-rates include occurrences that did not follow through?

Yes — always. Pattern win-rates are computed over all detected occurrences, winners and losers alike, and are shown alongside the sample size they are based on. We never cherry-pick the occurrences that worked.