Ethereum closed yesterday at $2,442, -50.7% from its all-time high of $4,957 (2025-08-24). Over the last year it moved 1.26x as much as Bitcoin on a typical day (correlation 0.91). Everything below comes from 9.2 years of daily closes since 2017-08-17.
On ETH: Fell within 24 hours 39% of the time (64 cases), vs 48% on an ordinary bar. No edge
Historical frequencies, not predictions. Live detection on every timeframe is in the pattern scanner.
Which patterns worked on Ethereum?
We tested 262 pattern, timeframe and horizon combinations with at least 30 past cases on ETH. 246 were indistinguishable from an ordinary day, 4 did better than usual, 5 tended to go the other way. Each is compared with how often ETH rose (or fell) over the same window from any random bar.
Rose within 24 hours 44% of the time (174 cases), vs 52% on an ordinary bar.
Ethereum by month
Median monthly return and how many years each month closed higher. With only 9 years per month, these are descriptions of the past, not reliable tendencies.
Jan
-2%
44% up
Feb
+3%
56% up
Mar
+6%
67% up
Apr
+5%
67% up
May
+2%
56% up
Jun
-10%
22% up
Jul
+16%
56% up
Aug
-5%
44% up
Sep
-10%
40% up
Oct
+4%
78% up
Nov
+7%
56% up
Dec
+6%
56% up
What followed Ethereum's biggest days
After a 10%+ daily drop62 times, last 2026-06-05
7 days later: ETH was higher 44% of the time (n=50), vs 52% after any day. Median -0.8% (any day +0.3%); middle 80% -13% to +16%. No different from any day.
30 days later: ETH was higher 44% of the time (n=34), vs 53% after any day. Median -3.3% (any day +1.3%); middle 80% -26% to +14%. No different from any day.
After a 10%+ daily rise82 times, last 2026-08-19
7 days later: ETH was higher 46% of the time (n=65), vs 52% after any day. Median -0.4% (any day +0.3%); middle 80% -10% to +17%. No different from any day.
30 days later: ETH was higher 50% of the time (n=42), vs 53% after any day. Median +0.5% (any day +1.3%); middle 80% -23% to +40%. No different from any day.
Statistics as of 2026-10-15. Name and market-cap rank: CoinGecko. Prices: Binance. Historical statistics describe the past and are not investment advice.