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What happens after Bitcoin trades 3x its normal volume?

Days with three times the usual volume, and the move that followed. Condition: Bitcoin trades 3x its usual daily volume.

1 day later
51%higher
vs 51% after any day. Median move +0.1% (any day +0.1%).
Middle 80%: -6.1% to +8.4%. Worst -13.5%, best +16.2%.
About the same as any dayn=74
3 days later
67%higher
vs 53% after any day. Median move +1.8% (any day +0.3%).
Middle 80%: -6.2% to +12.0%. Worst -12.6%, best +22.5%.
About the same as any dayn=48
7 days later
62%higher
vs 53% after any day. Median move +4.3% (any day +0.5%).
Middle 80%: -8.5% to +16.2%. Worst -21.3%, best +39.9%.
About the same as any dayn=39
30 days later
61%higher
vs 55% after any day. Median move +3.9% (any day +1.8%).
Middle 80%: -12.7% to +32.0%. Worst -45.6%, best +48.4%.
About the same as any dayn=31

74 occurrences on Bitcoin since 2017-08-17. Each horizon counts non-overlapping cases only (a run of consecutive days counts once per horizon), measured from the close of the day the condition was met, and is compared with every day in the same history. "Up more/less often" needs a z-score beyond ±2.5; anything closer is reported as the same as any day.

DateClose+1d+3d+7d+30d
2026-08-2178,338.03-1.6%+0.8%-0.6%+3.6%
2026-06-0561,056.47-0.3%+3.3%+4.1%+4.3%
2026-02-0670,580.26-1.8%-0.6%-2.5%-6.5%
2026-02-0562,909.86+12.2%+11.8%+5.3%+6.9%
2025-11-2185,129.43-0.5%+3.7%+6.8%+4.2%
2025-10-10112,774.5-1.9%+2.1%-5.6%-7.1%
2025-04-0982,615.22-3.6%+3.2%+1.7%+24.6%
2025-04-0779,163.24-3.6%+0.6%+6.9%+22.6%
2025-02-2884,349.94+2.0%+2.2%+2.9%-2.3%
2025-02-2588,680.4-5.0%-4.9%-1.6%-1.6%
2025-01-20102,260.01+3.8%+1.6%-0.2%-5.5%
2024-11-1287,952.01+2.8%+3.5%+5.0%+13.7%
2024-11-0675,571.99+0.4%+1.5%+19.6%+32.0%
2024-08-0554,018.81+3.7%+14.2%+9.9%+7.3%
2024-07-0556,628.79+2.8%+0.1%+2.2%+2.7%
2024-03-0563,724.01+3.7%+6.9%+12.1%+7.5%
2024-02-2862,432.1-2.1%-0.7%+5.8%+11.9%
2023-10-2433,922.73+1.7%-0.1%+2.1%+9.9%
2023-10-2333,069.99+2.6%+3.3%+4.3%+13.1%
2023-10-1628,500.78-0.4%+0.8%+16.0%+32.8%
2023-08-1726,623.41-2.1%-1.6%-1.7%-0.2%
2022-07-0821,594.75-0.0%-7.5%-3.5%+7.3%
2022-06-1522,583.72-9.7%-16.0%-11.5%-7.8%
2022-06-1422,136.41+2.0%-7.5%-6.4%-7.0%
2022-06-1322,487.41-1.6%-9.3%-8.5%-10.0%
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