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What happens to Bitcoin after it drops 5% in a day?

Every day BTC closed 5% or more below the previous close, and what it did next. Condition: Bitcoin closes down 5% or more in a day.

1 day later
56%higher
vs 51% after any day. Median move +0.5% (any day +0.1%).
Middle 80%: -3.9% to +7.0%. Worst -15.4%, best +16.2%.
About the same as any dayn=179
3 days later
51%higher
vs 53% after any day. Median move +0.2% (any day +0.3%).
Middle 80%: -8.6% to +10.1%. Worst -22.9%, best +23.6%.
About the same as any dayn=149
7 days later
47%higher
vs 53% after any day. Median move -0.4% (any day +0.5%).
Middle 80%: -12.9% to +9.1%. Worst -38.3%, best +30.3%.
About the same as any dayn=114
30 days later
50%higher
vs 55% after any day. Median move +0.0% (any day +1.8%).
Middle 80%: -21.0% to +21.9%. Worst -49.0%, best +66.9%.
About the same as any dayn=60

179 occurrences on Bitcoin since 2017-08-17. Each horizon counts non-overlapping cases only (a run of consecutive days counts once per horizon), measured from the close of the day the condition was met, and is compared with every day in the same history. "Up more/less often" needs a z-score beyond ±2.5; anything closer is reported as the same as any day.

DateClose+1d+3d+7d+30d
2026-06-0266,760.83-3.9%-8.5%-7.5%-7.8%
2026-02-0562,909.86+12.2%+11.8%+5.3%+6.9%
2026-01-3178,741.09-2.3%-3.8%-12.0%-12.6%
2026-01-2984,650.16-0.5%-9.1%-25.7%-20.9%
2025-11-2086,637.23-1.7%+0.2%+5.4%+2.0%
2025-11-1494,594+1.1%-2.5%-10.0%-6.8%
2025-10-10112,774.5-1.9%+2.1%-5.6%-7.1%
2025-04-0678,430+0.9%+5.3%+6.8%+23.5%
2025-03-0980,734.37-2.6%+3.6%+2.3%-5.5%
2025-03-0386,220.61+1.2%+4.3%-8.8%-4.3%
2025-01-0796,954.61-1.9%-2.3%-0.4%-0.4%
2024-12-18100,204.01-2.7%-2.9%-0.8%+3.9%
2024-08-2759,415-0.6%-0.5%-3.2%+9.7%
2024-08-0554,018.81+3.7%+14.2%+9.9%+7.3%
2024-08-0261,498.33-1.3%-12.2%-1.1%-6.8%
2024-07-0457,050.01-0.7%-2.1%+0.5%+6.4%
2024-04-3060,672-3.8%+3.6%+2.7%+12.7%
2024-04-0265,463.99+0.8%+3.6%+5.6%-9.8%
2024-03-1961,937.4+9.5%+3.0%+13.0%+2.5%
2024-03-1665,300.63+4.7%-5.2%-2.0%-2.9%
2024-03-0563,724.01+3.7%+6.9%+12.1%+7.5%
2024-01-1242,782.73+0.1%-0.6%-2.6%+12.9%
2023-12-1141,253.4+0.6%+4.3%+3.4%+13.1%
2023-08-1726,623.41-2.1%-1.6%-1.7%-0.2%
2023-06-0525,728.2+5.8%+3.0%+0.7%+18.6%
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