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What happens to Bitcoin after it rallies 10% in a day?

Does a big up day keep going, or give back? Every 10%+ day on record. Condition: Bitcoin closes up 10% or more in a day.

1 day later
40%higher
vs 51% after any day. Median move -0.8% (any day +0.1%).
Middle 80%: -6.4% to +4.2%. Worst -13.5%, best +22.5%.
About the same as any dayn=43
3 days later
46%higher
vs 53% after any day. Median move -0.7% (any day +0.3%).
Middle 80%: -9.3% to +9.5%. Worst -15.6%, best +21.6%.
About the same as any dayn=39
7 days later
62%higher
vs 53% after any day. Median move +2.3% (any day +0.5%).
Middle 80%: -11.2% to +11.0%. Worst -19.0%, best +27.0%.
About the same as any dayn=34
30 days later
54%higher
vs 55% after any day. Median move +5.4% (any day +1.8%).
Middle 80%: -23.6% to +22.3%. Worst -28.8%, best +148.0%.
About the same as any dayn=24

43 occurrences on Bitcoin since 2017-08-17. Each horizon counts non-overlapping cases only (a run of consecutive days counts once per horizon), measured from the close of the day the condition was met, and is compared with every day in the same history. "Up more/less often" needs a z-score beyond ±2.5; anything closer is reported as the same as any day.

DateClose+1d+3d+7d+30d
2026-02-0670,580.26-1.8%-0.6%-2.5%-6.5%
2024-11-1188,647.99-0.8%-1.5%+2.0%+14.1%
2024-08-0861,685.99-1.4%-4.8%-6.7%-12.2%
2023-10-2333,069.99+2.6%+3.3%+4.3%+13.1%
2022-11-1017,601.15-3.0%-7.2%-5.2%-2.7%
2022-09-0921,360.11+1.4%+4.8%-7.3%-9.0%
2022-02-2843,160+2.9%-1.6%-12.0%+9.1%
2022-02-0441,574.25-0.5%+5.5%+1.9%-7.6%
2021-06-0937,388.05-1.9%-4.9%+2.6%-9.6%
2021-05-2438,796.29-1.2%-0.7%-4.0%-13.2%
2021-05-2040,526.64-8.1%-14.5%-4.9%-12.4%
2021-04-2654,001.39+1.9%-0.8%+5.9%-27.3%
2021-02-0846,374.87+0.1%+3.4%+3.3%+20.4%
2020-11-0515,590.02-0.1%-0.7%+4.5%+22.8%
2020-07-2711,029.96-1.1%+0.6%+1.7%+3.9%
2020-04-298,778.57-1.8%+2.2%+4.2%+7.4%
2020-03-236,467.31+4.3%+4.2%-1.1%+10.2%
2020-03-196,162.37+0.8%-5.6%+9.3%+17.6%
2020-03-135,578.6-7.3%-9.8%+11.3%+23.8%
2019-10-258,655.02+6.6%+6.4%+6.7%-20.2%
2019-07-0311,940-6.7%-5.7%+1.4%-11.9%
2019-06-2613,093.8-13.5%-9.1%-8.8%-25.0%
2019-05-198,148.48-2.6%-6.4%+5.7%+11.4%
2019-05-137,790.71+2.0%+1.0%+1.9%+4.3%
2019-05-117,076.22-1.5%+12.3%+2.6%+12.8%
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