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What happens to Bitcoin after extreme greed?

Fear & Greed over 80: what BTC did once the crowd got euphoric. Condition: Bitcoin Fear & Greed rises above 80.

1 day later
54%higher
vs 51% after any day. Median move +0.1% (any day +0.1%).
Middle 80%: -5.2% to +3.6%. Worst -11.0%, best +10.8%.
About the same as any dayn=28
3 days later
56%higher
vs 53% after any day. Median move +1.0% (any day +0.3%).
Middle 80%: -7.5% to +5.1%. Worst -10.7%, best +21.1%.
About the same as any dayn=27
7 days later
55%higher
vs 53% after any day. Median move +1.5% (any day +0.5%).
Middle 80%: -12.5% to +18.8%. Worst -24.7%, best +23.5%.
About the same as any dayn=20
30 days later
60%higher
vs 55% after any day. Median move +7.8% (any day +1.8%).
Middle 80%: -9.5% to +20.8%. Worst -12.0%, best +24.3%.
Too few cases to telln=10

28 occurrences on Bitcoin since 2017-08-17. Each horizon counts non-overlapping cases only (a run of consecutive days counts once per horizon), measured from the close of the day the condition was met, and is compared with every day in the same history. "Up more/less often" needs a z-score beyond ±2.5; anything closer is reported as the same as any day.

DateClose+1d+3d+7d+30d
2025-01-22103,706.66+0.2%+1.0%+0.0%-7.3%
2024-12-16106,058.66+0.1%-8.1%-10.5%-5.2%
2024-12-14101,420+3.0%+4.7%-4.1%-6.8%
2024-12-12100,004.29+1.4%+4.5%-2.5%-5.4%
2024-12-0596,945.63+2.9%+4.3%+3.2%+1.3%
2024-11-3096,407.99+0.8%-0.6%+3.5%-3.8%
2024-11-2593,010.01-1.1%+2.8%+3.0%+6.9%
2024-11-1690,586.92-0.8%+1.9%+7.8%+17.1%
2024-11-1390,375.2-3.4%+0.2%+4.3%+12.2%
2024-03-2669,988-0.7%-0.2%-6.5%-7.8%
2024-03-1172,078.1-0.9%-1.0%-6.2%-2.0%
2024-03-0766,823.17+1.9%+3.2%+6.8%+3.1%
2024-03-0363,113.97+8.1%+4.7%+9.3%+3.7%
2024-02-2862,432.1-2.1%-0.7%+5.8%+11.9%
2021-11-0966,947.66-3.1%-4.2%-10.3%-29.0%
2021-10-2066,001.41-5.8%-7.1%-11.5%-12.0%
2021-03-0852,375.17+4.8%+10.3%+6.2%+6.8%
2021-03-0448,374.09+0.8%+5.4%+19.4%+17.9%
2021-02-0538,290.24+2.3%+21.1%+23.5%+33.1%
2021-01-1439,144.5-6.1%-8.5%-21.2%+20.5%
2020-11-0615,579.92-4.9%-1.6%+4.8%+24.3%
2020-09-0211,388.54-11.0%-10.7%-10.3%-7.2%
2020-08-2111,531.34+1.1%+1.9%-0.0%-5.3%
2020-08-1611,911+3.1%-1.3%-2.2%-9.4%
2020-08-1111,392.08+1.5%+3.2%+4.8%-9.3%
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