Deep bear-market territory: what followed the first close 50% under the high. Condition: Bitcoin first closes 50% or more below its all-time high.
4 occurrences on Bitcoin since 2017-08-17. Each horizon counts non-overlapping cases only (a run of consecutive days counts once per horizon), measured from the close of the day the condition was met, and is compared with every day in the same history. "Up more/less often" needs a z-score beyond ±2.5; anything closer is reported as the same as any day.
| Date | Close | +1d | +3d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | 61,056.47 | -0.3% | +3.3% | +4.1% | +4.3% |
| 2022-05-09 | 30,076.31 | +3.1% | -3.5% | -0.7% | +0.4% |
| 2021-06-21 | 31,608.93 | +2.9% | +9.7% | +9.1% | +1.7% |
| 2018-02-01 | 9,224.52 | -3.8% | -11.3% | -15.6% | +24.3% |