UMA closed yesterday at $0.3940, -99.1% from its all-time high of $44 (2021-02-04). Over the last year it moved 0.98x as much as Bitcoin on a typical day (correlation 0.64). Everything below comes from 6.1 years of daily closes since 2020-09-09.
7 days
-0.5%
30 days
+11.9%
90 days
+8.2%
1 year
-62.7%
Year to date
-43.8%
Volatility (30d, annualised)
66%
1-year: 67%
Worst drawdown, last year
-73%
All-time: -99%
Trend
Below 200-day
-2.0% from it · above 50-day
Market cap
$36.5M
24h volume $316,578 (Binance)
Daily close, last 400 days
$1.43$0.2559
2025-09-152026-01-252026-06-062026-10-16
Patterns confirmed in the last few days
In Neck(bearish, daily chart, 10/15/2026)
All coins: Fell within 7 days 53% of the time (4,091 cases), vs 54% on an ordinary day. No edge
Historical frequencies, not predictions. Live detection on every timeframe is in the pattern scanner.
Which patterns worked on UMA?
We tested 33 pattern, timeframe and horizon combinations with at least 30 past cases on UMA. 31 were indistinguishable from an ordinary day, 2 tended to go the other way. Each is compared with how often UMA rose (or fell) over the same window from any random bar.
Went the other way more often than usual
Three Outside Down · bearish · daily chart · 24 hoursLeans opposite
Fell within 24 hours 35% of the time (63 cases), vs 51% on an ordinary day.
Fell within 24 hours 36% of the time (61 cases), vs 51% on an ordinary day.
UMA by month
Median monthly return and how many years each month closed higher. With only 6 years per month, these are descriptions of the past, not reliable tendencies.
Jan
+9%
50% up
Feb
-2%
50% up
Mar
-4%
33% up
Apr
-4%
50% up
May
-6%
17% up
Jun
-18%
0% up
Jul
+3%
50% up
Aug
+1%
50% up
Sep
-3%
50% up
Oct
-6%
33% up
Nov
+12%
67% up
Dec
-11%
17% up
What followed UMA's biggest days
After a 10%+ daily drop67 times, last 2026-02-05
7 days later: UMA was higher 42% of the time (n=48), vs 44% after any day. Median -2.2% (any day -1.5%); middle 80% -13% to +15%. No different from any day.
30 days later: UMA was higher 34% of the time (n=32), vs 41% after any day. Median -8.9% (any day -4.6%); middle 80% -26% to +27%. No different from any day.
After a 10%+ daily rise87 times, last 2026-02-23
7 days later: UMA was higher 34% of the time (n=62), vs 44% after any day. Median -5.6% (any day -1.5%); middle 80% -25% to +10%. No different from any day.
30 days later: UMA was higher 36% of the time (n=36), vs 41% after any day. Median -9.4% (any day -4.6%); middle 80% -37% to +23%. No different from any day.
Statistics as of 2026-10-15. Name and market-cap rank: CoinGecko. Prices: Binance. Historical statistics describe the past and are not investment advice.