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#20 by market cap · XLM

Stellar statistics

Stellar closed yesterday at $0.1831, -77.1% from its all-time high of $0.7985 (2021-05-16). Over the last year it moved 1.06x as much as Bitcoin on a typical day (correlation 0.62). Everything below comes from 8.4 years of daily closes since 2018-05-31.

7 days
-4.7%
30 days
+4.0%
90 days
-1.3%
1 year
-43.6%
Year to date
-8.9%
Volatility (30d, annualised)
76%
1-year: 76%
Worst drawdown, last year
-57%
All-time: -90%
Trend
Above 200-day
+0.5% from it · below 50-day
Market cap
$6.4B
24h volume $15.6M (Binance)
Daily close, last 400 days
$0.4246$0.1276
2025-09-152026-01-252026-06-062026-10-16

Patterns confirmed in the last few days

In Neck (bearish, daily chart, 10/15/2026)
On XLM: Fell within 7 days 58% of the time (43 cases), vs 55% on an ordinary day. No edge
Bearish Engulfing (bearish, 4-hour chart, 10/16/2026)
On XLM: Fell within 24 hours 52% of the time (725 cases), vs 51% on an ordinary bar. No edge
Bearish Marubozu (bearish, 4-hour chart, 10/16/2026)
On XLM: Fell within 24 hours 42% of the time (132 cases), vs 51% on an ordinary bar. No edge
Falling Wedge (bullish, 4-hour chart, 10/16/2026)
On XLM: Rose within 24 hours 53% of the time (76 cases), vs 48% on an ordinary bar. No edge

Historical frequencies, not predictions. Live detection on every timeframe is in the pattern scanner.

Which patterns worked on Stellar?

We tested 260 pattern, timeframe and horizon combinations with at least 30 past cases on XLM. 242 were indistinguishable from an ordinary day, 5 did better than usual, 5 tended to go the other way. Each is compared with how often XLM rose (or fell) over the same window from any random bar.

Bearish Harami · bearish · 1-hour chart · 4 hoursWeak edge
Fell within 4 hours 54% of the time (1,440 cases), vs 49% on an ordinary bar.
Hanging Man · bearish · 1-hour chart · 4 hoursWeak edge
Fell within 4 hours 60% of the time (170 cases), vs 49% on an ordinary bar.
Homing Pigeon · bullish · 1-hour chart · 4 hoursWeak edge
Rose within 4 hours 58% of the time (179 cases), vs 48% on an ordinary bar.
Inv Cup & Handle · bearish · 4-hour chart · 24 hoursWeak edge
Fell within 24 hours 70% of the time (40 cases), vs 51% on an ordinary bar.
Three Outside Down · bearish · 4-hour chart · 7 daysWeak edge
Fell within 7 days 62% of the time (194 cases), vs 54% on an ordinary bar.
Went the other way more often than usual
Bearish Engulfing · bearish · 1-hour chart · 4 hoursOpposite
Fell within 4 hours 45% of the time (1,808 cases), vs 49% on an ordinary bar.
Three Black Crows · bearish · 1-hour chart · 4 hoursLeans opposite
Fell within 4 hours 43% of the time (738 cases), vs 49% on an ordinary bar.
Three Outside Down · bearish · 1-hour chart · 4 hoursLeans opposite
Fell within 4 hours 44% of the time (859 cases), vs 49% on an ordinary bar.
Bullish Engulfing · bullish · 1-hour chart · 4 hoursLeans opposite
Rose within 4 hours 44% of the time (1,777 cases), vs 48% on an ordinary bar.
Bullish Marubozu · bullish · 1-hour chart · 4 hoursLeans opposite
Rose within 4 hours 42% of the time (445 cases), vs 48% on an ordinary bar.

Stellar by month

Median monthly return and how many years each month closed higher. With only 8 years per month, these are descriptions of the past, not reliable tendencies.

Jan
-8%
38% up
Feb
-4%
38% up
Mar
+10%
62% up
Apr
-8%
25% up
May
-3%
25% up
Jun
-18%
11% up
Jul
+10%
78% up
Aug
-10%
22% up
Sep
+2%
56% up
Oct
+2%
50% up
Nov
-13%
25% up
Dec
-20%
12% up

What followed Stellar's biggest days

After a 10%+ daily drop52 times, last 2026-05-30
7 days later: XLM was higher 57% of the time (n=44), vs 44% after any day. Median +3.0% (any day -1.1%); middle 80% -15% to +17%. No different from any day.
30 days later: XLM was higher 42% of the time (n=33), vs 44% after any day. Median -2.5% (any day -3.0%); middle 80% -24% to +27%. No different from any day.
After a 10%+ daily rise81 times, last 2026-08-21
7 days later: XLM was higher 52% of the time (n=54), vs 44% after any day. Median +0.4% (any day -1.1%); middle 80% -16% to +30%. No different from any day.
30 days later: XLM was higher 53% of the time (n=34), vs 44% after any day. Median +8.3% (any day -3.0%); middle 80% -22% to +54%. No different from any day.

More questions like this: what happens after…

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Statistics as of 2026-10-15. Name and market-cap rank: CoinGecko. Prices: Binance. Historical statistics describe the past and are not investment advice.