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#44 by market cap · AAVE

Aave statistics

Aave closed yesterday at $157.59, -76.4% from its all-time high of $668 (2021-05-18). Over the last year it moved 1.37x as much as Bitcoin on a typical day (correlation 0.70). Everything below comes from 6 years of daily closes since 2020-10-15.

7 days
-5.2%
30 days
+28.9%
90 days
+75.1%
1 year
-35.0%
Year to date
+7.9%
Volatility (30d, annualised)
85%
1-year: 86%
Worst drawdown, last year
-75%
All-time: -92%
Trend
Above 200-day
+51.0% from it · above 50-day
Market cap
$2.4B
24h volume $20.8M (Binance)
Daily close, last 400 days
$324.16$46.06
2025-09-152026-01-252026-06-062026-10-16

Patterns confirmed in the last few days

Bearish Engulfing (bearish, 4-hour chart, 10/16/2026)
On AAVE: Fell within 24 hours 48% of the time (605 cases), vs 50% on an ordinary bar. No edge
Mat Hold (bullish, 4-hour chart, 10/16/2026)
On AAVE: Rose within 24 hours 41% of the time (97 cases), vs 49% on an ordinary bar. No edge
Bearish Marubozu (bearish, 4-hour chart, 10/16/2026)
On AAVE: Fell within 24 hours 54% of the time (112 cases), vs 50% on an ordinary bar. No edge

Historical frequencies, not predictions. Live detection on every timeframe is in the pattern scanner.

Which patterns worked on Aave?

We tested 118 pattern, timeframe and horizon combinations with at least 30 past cases on AAVE. 115 were indistinguishable from an ordinary day, 1 did better than usual, 2 tended to go the other way. Each is compared with how often AAVE rose (or fell) over the same window from any random bar.

Three Black Crows · bearish · 4-hour chart · 7 daysWeak edge
Fell within 7 days 58% of the time (154 cases), vs 49% on an ordinary bar.
Went the other way more often than usual
Three Black Crows · bearish · daily chart · 24 hoursLeans opposite
Fell within 24 hours 38% of the time (69 cases), vs 50% on an ordinary day.
Rounding Bottom · bullish · 4-hour chart · 7 daysLeans opposite
Rose within 7 days 38% of the time (68 cases), vs 50% on an ordinary bar.

Aave by month

Median monthly return and how many years each month closed higher. With only 6 years per month, these are descriptions of the past, not reliable tendencies.

Jan
-5%
50% up
Feb
-10%
33% up
Mar
-6%
33% up
Apr
-5%
17% up
May
-9%
33% up
Jun
-0%
50% up
Jul
+11%
83% up
Aug
+17%
67% up
Sep
+7%
50% up
Oct
+4%
60% up
Nov
-5%
50% up
Dec
+5%
67% up

What followed Aave's biggest days

After a 10%+ daily drop63 times, last 2026-06-05
7 days later: AAVE was higher 45% of the time (n=44), vs 50% after any day. Median -0.5% (any day +0.1%); middle 80% -19% to +26%. No different from any day.
30 days later: AAVE was higher 50% of the time (n=28), vs 48% after any day. Median +2.5% (any day -1.9%); middle 80% -23% to +49%. No different from any day.
After a 10%+ daily rise88 times, last 2026-09-29
7 days later: AAVE was higher 52% of the time (n=61), vs 50% after any day. Median +0.2% (any day +0.1%); middle 80% -16% to +28%. No different from any day.
30 days later: AAVE was higher 47% of the time (n=34), vs 48% after any day. Median -4.2% (any day -1.9%); middle 80% -26% to +42%. No different from any day.

More questions like this: what happens after…

Trade AAVE on: binance, bitget, bybit, coinbase, gateio, kraken, kucoin, mexc, okx.
Similar-sized coins: Ethena, Ondo, Pump.fun, Polkadot, Quant, Worldcoin, Shiba Inu, Aster
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Statistics as of 2026-10-15. Name and market-cap rank: CoinGecko. Prices: Binance. Historical statistics describe the past and are not investment advice.