On Polkadot's daily chart, after a three black crows Polkadot fell within 7 days 60% of the time across 58 past cases. On an ordinary day it did so 54% of the time.
| Within | Polkadot | Ordinary bar | Cases | All coins | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 hours | 45% (35%–56%) | 51% | 86 | 41% vs 51% | No edge |
| 30 days | 67% (51%–79%) | 59% | 39 | 56% vs 58% | No edge |
| 7 days | 60% (47%–72%) | 54% | 58 | 50% vs 54% | No edge |
| Within | Polkadot | Ordinary bar | Cases | All coins | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 hours | 47% (41%–53%) | 51% | 302 | 47% vs 50% | No edge |
| 7 days | 55% (47%–62%) | 53% | 162 | 52% vs 52% | No edge |
| Within | Polkadot | Ordinary bar | Cases | All coins | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 hours | 50% (31%–69%) | 50% | 24 | 48% vs 50% | Too few |
| 4 hours | 48% (32%–65%) | 48% | 31 | 45% vs 49% | No edge |
How this is measured: each occurrence is counted from the bar where the pattern became knowable, overlapping cases are dropped, and the result is compared with how often Polkadot moved the same way from any random bar over the same window. A pattern only earns "beat the baseline" when the difference is larger than luck explains across all the tests we run. Full method.