On Bitcoin's daily chart, after a three black crows Bitcoin fell within 7 days 53% of the time across 59 past cases. On an ordinary day it did so 47% of the time.
| Within | Bitcoin | Ordinary bar | Cases | All coins | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 hours | 38% (28%–49%) | 49% | 77 | 41% vs 51% | No edge |
| 30 days | 56% (41%–70%) | 45% | 43 | 56% vs 58% | No edge |
| 7 days | 53% (40%–65%) | 47% | 59 | 50% vs 54% | No edge |
| Within | Bitcoin | Ordinary bar | Cases | All coins | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 hours | 43% (37%–50%) | 48% | 229 | 47% vs 50% | No edge |
| 7 days | 43% (35%–51%) | 46% | 154 | 52% vs 52% | No edge |
| Within | Bitcoin | Ordinary bar | Cases | All coins | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 hours | 45% (41%–50%) | 48% | 479 | 48% vs 50% | No edge |
| 4 hours | 45% (42%–49%) | 49% | 665 | 45% vs 49% | No edge |
How this is measured: each occurrence is counted from the bar where the pattern became knowable, overlapping cases are dropped, and the result is compared with how often Bitcoin moved the same way from any random bar over the same window. A pattern only earns "beat the baseline" when the difference is larger than luck explains across all the tests we run. Full method.