On Aave's daily chart, after a three black crows Aave fell within 7 days 60% of the time across 50 past cases. On an ordinary day it did so 50% of the time.
| Within | Aave | Ordinary bar | Cases | All coins | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 hours | 38% (27%–49%) | 50% | 69 | 41% vs 51% | Leans opposite |
| 30 days | 50% (34%–66%) | 53% | 34 | 56% vs 58% | No edge |
| 7 days | 60% (46%–72%) | 50% | 50 | 50% vs 54% | No edge |
| Within | Aave | Ordinary bar | Cases | All coins | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 hours | 50% (44%–56%) | 50% | 259 | 47% vs 50% | No edge |
| 7 days | 58% (51%–66%) | 49% | 154 | 52% vs 52% | Weak edge |
How this is measured: each occurrence is counted from the bar where the pattern became knowable, overlapping cases are dropped, and the result is compared with how often Aave moved the same way from any random bar over the same window. A pattern only earns "beat the baseline" when the difference is larger than luck explains across all the tests we run. Full method.