Does the Bearish Harami work on Sui?

On Sui's daily chart, after a bearish harami Sui fell within 7 days 56% of the time across 55 past cases. On an ordinary day it did so 54% of the time.

No edge: a coin flipIndistinguishable from an ordinary day on this coin. Most patterns land here.
On SuiNo edge
56% of 55 casesbaseline 54%
All coinsNo edge
54% of 14,324 casesbaseline 53%
Median move after the pattern +4.31% vs +1.21% from any bar; after a 0.2% round trip of fees +4.11%.

Daily chart

WithinSuiOrdinary barCasesAll coinsVerdict
24 hours51% (39%–62%)53%6950% vs 51%No edge
30 days59% (41%–75%)53%2758% vs 57%Too few
7 days56% (43%–69%)54%5554% vs 53%No edge

4-hour chart

WithinSuiOrdinary barCasesAll coinsVerdict
24 hours57% (51%–63%)53%30352% vs 50%No edge
7 days60% (51%–68%)55%12052% vs 51%No edge

How this is measured: each occurrence is counted from the bar where the pattern became knowable, overlapping cases are dropped, and the result is compared with how often Sui moved the same way from any random bar over the same window. A pattern only earns "beat the baseline" when the difference is larger than luck explains across all the tests we run. Full method.

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