How often a trade setup has to win just to break even once fees and slippage are counted, from your stop and target distances. Enter your real win rate to see the expectancy per trade.
Costs add 5.0 percentage points to the win rate you need. Expectancy is per trade, as a % of the position.
cost = 2 × (fee + slippage)net win = target − cost, net loss = stop + costbreakeven win rate = net loss ÷ (net win + net loss)
For context on how often chart patterns actually win against a coin flip, see the pattern library: most land close to the coin's own baseline.
The share of trades that must hit the target for a strategy to make exactly zero over time. Below it you lose money however disciplined you are; above it, you make money on average.
Fees and slippage are paid on every trade, win or lose. They shrink every win and enlarge every loss, so tight-stop strategies, where the cost is large relative to the stop, need a much higher win rate than the reward-to-risk ratio alone suggests.
The average result per trade: win rate × average win minus loss rate × average loss. Positive expectancy is the only thing that makes a strategy worth running. A high win rate with small wins and large losses can still be negative.
This tool covers one position. Risk X-Ray aggregates your whole book into true effective leverage and a liquidation-cascade map.
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