Does the Three White Soldiers work on NEAR Protocol?

On NEAR Protocol's daily chart, after a three white soldiers NEAR Protocol rose within 7 days 42% of the time across 52 past cases. On an ordinary day it did so 49% of the time.

No edge: a coin flipIndistinguishable from an ordinary day on this coin. Most patterns land here.
On NEAR ProtocolNo edge
42% of 52 casesbaseline 49%
All coinsNo edge
46% of 7,212 casesbaseline 46%
Median move after the pattern -1.95% vs -0.49% from any bar; after a 0.2% round trip of fees -2.15%.

Daily chart

WithinNEAR ProtocolOrdinary barCasesAll coinsVerdict
24 hours44% (34%–55%)49%7745% vs 49%No edge
30 days59% (42%–74%)46%3445% vs 43%No edge
7 days42% (30%–56%)49%5246% vs 46%No edge

4-hour chart

WithinNEAR ProtocolOrdinary barCasesAll coinsVerdict
24 hours43% (38%–49%)49%28848% vs 49%No edge
7 days49% (41%–57%)49%15550% vs 48%No edge

1-hour chart

WithinNEAR ProtocolOrdinary barCasesAll coinsVerdict
24 hours49% (45%–54%)49%54349% vs 50%No edge
4 hours47% (44%–51%)49%78048% vs 50%No edge

How this is measured: each occurrence is counted from the bar where the pattern became knowable, overlapping cases are dropped, and the result is compared with how often NEAR Protocol moved the same way from any random bar over the same window. A pattern only earns "beat the baseline" when the difference is larger than luck explains across all the tests we run. Full method.

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