Does the Bullish Harami work on Zcash?

On Zcash's daily chart, after a bullish harami Zcash rose within 7 days 52% of the time across 108 past cases. On an ordinary day it did so 50% of the time.

No edge: a coin flipIndistinguishable from an ordinary day on this coin. Most patterns land here.
On ZcashNo edge
52% of 108 casesbaseline 50%
All coinsNo edge
45% of 15,980 casesbaseline 46%
Median move after the pattern +0.27% vs +0.15% from any bar; after a 0.2% round trip of fees +0.07%.

Daily chart

WithinZcashOrdinary barCasesAll coinsVerdict
24 hours45% (37%–54%)50%12647% vs 48%No edge
30 days45% (32%–58%)50%5641% vs 42%No edge
7 days52% (43%–61%)50%10845% vs 46%No edge

4-hour chart

WithinZcashOrdinary barCasesAll coinsVerdict
24 hours52% (48%–56%)51%57750% vs 49%No edge
7 days54% (48%–60%)52%24248% vs 48%No edge

1-hour chart

WithinZcashOrdinary barCasesAll coinsVerdict
24 hours53% (49%–56%)50%74451% vs 50%No edge
4 hours48% (45%–50%)49%136750% vs 50%No edge

How this is measured: each occurrence is counted from the bar where the pattern became knowable, overlapping cases are dropped, and the result is compared with how often Zcash moved the same way from any random bar over the same window. A pattern only earns "beat the baseline" when the difference is larger than luck explains across all the tests we run. Full method.

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