On Pepe's daily chart, after a bearish engulfing Pepe fell within 7 days 71% of the time across 52 past cases. On an ordinary day it did so 55% of the time.
| Within | Pepe | Ordinary bar | Cases | All coins | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 hours | 54% (43%–65%) | 51% | 72 | 50% vs 51% | No edge |
| 30 days | 55% (38%–72%) | 56% | 29 | 57% vs 58% | Too few |
| 7 days | 71% (58%–82%) | 55% | 52 | 55% vs 54% | Weak edge |
| Within | Pepe | Ordinary bar | Cases | All coins | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 hours | 46% (41%–51%) | 50% | 369 | 48% vs 50% | No edge |
| 7 days | 53% (44%–61%) | 55% | 133 | 51% vs 51% | No edge |
How this is measured: each occurrence is counted from the bar where the pattern became knowable, overlapping cases are dropped, and the result is compared with how often Pepe moved the same way from any random bar over the same window. A pattern only earns "beat the baseline" when the difference is larger than luck explains across all the tests we run. Full method.